-We expect UK GDP will fall by 11.4% in 2020, bouncing back by 5.6% in 2021.

-As a result of the November lockdown, we now expect a fall in GDP in Q4.

-However, we don't think the economic impact will be as severe as the first lockdown, partly because more sectors, like construction and education, remain open. In addition, firms are more prepared having adapted business models during the first lock down.